SRINAGAR: Jammu and Kashmir could witness a relatively mild and dry winter in 2026-27, with the influence of the El Niño weather pattern likely to keep temperatures comparatively warmer and reduce snowfall activity, according to Director of the Meteorological Department, Srinagar, Mukhtar Ahmad.However, the meteorological department has cautioned against drawing definitive conclusions about the upcoming Kashmir winter forecast, saying weather patterns can change significantly as the season approaches. Ahmad said Jammu and Kashmir will continue to experience winter, while its intensity may vary.According to the latest indications from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the latter part of 2026 and early 2027 could be warmer and drier than normal, particularly during the peak winter months, due to the influence of El Niño.One or Two Major Snowfall Spells Still PossibleDespite expectations of a relatively dry winter, the Kashmir Valley could still receive one or two significant snowfall spells during the peak winter period.Ahmad said a strong Western Disturbance combined with adequate moisture could bring substantial snowfall to Jammu and Kashmir. He noted that such snowfall would be particularly important for the region’s water resources and glaciers.In recent years, Kashmir has experienced prolonged dry periods followed by limited snowfall spells. The region has also witnessed shorter snow-cover periods and longer dry spells during peak winter.Weak Western Disturbances Currently Affecting J&KThe Meteorological Department said Jammu and Kashmir is currently witnessing frequent but weak Western Disturbances, arriving roughly every third or fourth day but producing little significant weather activity.Higher reaches of North Kashmir could receive light snowfall or cloudy weather from these systems, although no major weather activity has been recorded so far.A stronger Western Disturbance during the beginning or peak of winter could significantly influence the Jammu Kashmir snowfall forecast.Climate Change Affecting Kashmir Snowfall PatternThe MeT department also linked changing snowfall patterns across the Himalayan region to climate change and rising temperatures.Timely snowfall is crucial for Jammu and Kashmir because snow accumulated during the colder peak winter months remains on the ground for longer and contributes to glacier recharge and water availability.Snowfall during February and March can also contribute to the region’s water resources, but warmer temperatures can cause the snow to melt more rapidly.J&K Precipitation Near NormalDespite significant monthly variations, Jammu and Kashmir’s overall precipitation remains close to normal, according to Ahmad.July recorded 35 per cent excess rainfall, while August received around 25 per cent below-normal rainfall. The early monsoon period also resulted in considerable losses in parts of the Union Territory.The MeT official also rejected claims circulating on social media that winter or February may not occur in India this year, calling such conclusions scientifically unfounded.Jammu and Kashmir can still expect rain and snowfall during the 2026-27 winter, although the season could generally be milder and drier than normal.
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